If I Knew

I confess I am not the boldest person when it comes to getting into cold water. It’s honestly a little embarrassing how hesitantly I inch into the Sound, even on the warmest summer days. That’s why when I chose to get dive certified, I went to the warm waters of a Mexican coastal town.

My instructor, Fernando, was grossly overqualified, possessing a Ph.D. in marine biology. My last supervised dive was to a shipwreck in shallow waters in a large bay. After a successful dive, we returned to the beach, sat in the shade of a palapa, and chatted over a post-dive beer.

He broke a period of quiet contemplation by saying more to himself than to me, “There used to be dolphins.” He turned to me and finished his thought: “There used to be dolphins in this bay. Since they started renting jet skis, the dolphins don’t come here anymore.”

It was mid-week of a shoulder month, so all the jet skis were parked on the beach, waiting for the next wave of tourists. It was a quiet, calm day on the water with only a few locals and random tourists causing any ripples on the water’s surface.

Since Fernando’s comment several years ago, I’ve asked myself numerous times: “If I knew riding a jet ski would cause dolphins (and whales) to leave the area, would I still want to ride one?” I’ve ridden them in the past and thought it was pretty fun. Now I’m not sure I’d want to.

I want to be clear, though: There’s no judgment of others here, only some head-scratching on my part. Fernando’s comment triggered a whole list of “If I knew, what would I do?” questions.

If I knew whales were dying from ingesting plastic bags, would I carry canvas bags or reused plastic bags when I go into the grocery store?

If I knew there is currently more carbon in our atmosphere than at any time over the last 800,000 years, would I buy an EV?

If I knew replacing existing plants with a grass lawn would take away nutrients for birds, bees, and butterflies, and habitat for rabbits, squirrels, and other ground animals, would I?

If I knew riding my mountain bike would catastrophically damage sensitive soil and drive away animals, would I still ride the trails?

When I was still working, I helped a passenger off the airplane and pushed her wheelchair up the jetway. She wasn’t significantly older than I was. Near the top of the jetway, she turned to me and said, “If I’d known I was going to end up like this, I would have done anything to prevent it.”

I didn’t know her and hated to question her, but I did wonder: Would she have? Would she have gone on regular walks? Would she have made healthier choices? If I blew out a knee, would I push hard enough to rehabilitate it to get back to fully functioning? What would I do if I knew?

If we knew the challenges of being in a long-term relationship, filled with highs and lows, would we choose marriage?

If we knew parenting would be such a challenge (at times), would we choose it? (I hope all parents can answer “yes” even during the most trying times.)

When our daughter was in high school, I heard a great podcast from NPR’s Planet Money: “What’s Your Major?” It was a very entertaining look into earnings potential. As I recall, a change in the most recent (at that time) census allowed them to couple college majors and earnings. It listed some of the least and most lucrative majors.

I listened with my daughter in the car. We didn’t talk much about it. A few weeks later, someone asked her what she planned to study. She immediately responded, “petroleum engineering.” She had heard. That podcast took the “If ” out of “If we knew.”

I was able to talk with her about potential career pathways. I didn’t want her to be driven by maximizing income. She seemed relieved there was no expectation for her to be a petroleum engineer.

Most of those are relatively meaningless individual contemplations. We’re at a crossroads where much larger “should we?” questions need to be asked and answered.

The latest talk on AI has my attention. When leaders of the tech world say, “There’s a nonzero chance this could end civilization,” I worry. The statement of AI risk published in the Center for AI Safety in May of 2023 states, “mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.”

I enjoyed watching “The Terminator” and “The Matrix.” I don’t want to live through them.

We may be too far down this road to stop, but before it’s too late, I sure wish someone would ask: “If I knew, what would I do?”

Mark Michel is a retired commercial airline pilot and a Key Pen Parks commissioner. He lives in Lakebay.